| |
@Risk by 
Product Description
 @RISK
performs risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to show you many
possible outcomes in your Microsoft Excel spreadsheet—and tells you how
likely they are to occur. This means you can judge which risks to take
and which ones to avoid, allowing for the best decision making under
uncertainty. With @RISK, you can answer questions like, “What is the
probability of profit exceeding $10 million?” or “What are the chances
of losing money on this venture?”
@RISK is used to analyze risk and uncertainty in a wide variety of
industries. From the financial to the scientific, anyone who faces
uncertainty in their quantitative analyses can benefit from @RISK.
INDUSTRY
|
SAMPLE APPLICATION
|
FINANCE AND SECURITIES
|
Retirement planning,
Currency valuation, Real options analysis, Discounted Cash Flow
analysis, Value-at-risk, Portfolio optimization
|
INSURANCE / REINSURANCE
|
Loss reserves estimation, Premium pricing
|
OIL / GAS / ENERGY
|
Exploration and production, Oil reserves estimation, Capital project estimation, Pricing, Regulation compliance
|
SIX SIGMA / QUALITY ANALYSIS
|
Manufacturing quality control, Customer service improvement, DMAIC, DFSS / DOE, Lean Six Sigma
|
MANUFACTURING
|
Six Sigma and quality analysis, New product analysis, Production siting, Plant shutdown, Product life cycle analysis
|
PHARMACEUTICALS / MEDICAL / HEALTHCARE
|
New product analysis, R&D estimation, Disease infection estimation
|
ENVIRONMENT
|
Endangered species preservation, Pollution cleanup and projections
|
GOVERNMENT AND DEFENSE
|
Resource allocation, War games, Welfare and budgetary projections
|
AEROSPACE AND TRANSPORTATION
|
Cost estimating, Highway planning and optimization, Supply chain distribution
|
Principal Characteristics
RISKOptimizer 5.7
Available with @RISK
Industrial or the DecisionTools Suite Industrial, RISKOptimizer is the
simulation optimization add-in for Microsoft Excel®. RISKOptimizer
combines the Monte Carlo simulation technology of @RISK, Palisade's
risk analysis add-in, with genetic algorithm optimization technology to
allow the optimization of Excel spreadsheet models that contain
uncertain values. Take any optimization problem and replace uncertain
values with @RISK probability distribution functions that represent a
range of possible values. For each trial solution RISKOptimizer tries
during optimization, it runs a Monte Carlo simulation, finding the
combination of adjustable cells that provides the best simulation
results.
New RISKOptimizer 5.7 Is
fully compatible with 64-bit Excel 2010. 64-bit technology enables
Excel and RISKOptimizer to access much more computer memory than ever
before. This allows for vastly larger models and greater computational
power.
RISKOptimizer 5.7 has also been fully translated into Spanish, German, French, Portuguese, Japanese, and Chinese.
@RISK for Six Sigma
@RISK comes with Six
Sigma statistics, functions, and reports. It is used to identify,
measure, and root out the causes of variability in your production and
service processes and designs.
More about @RISK for Six Sigma
Excel Ease of Use
@RISK is a true add-in to
Microsoft Excel, integrating completely with your spreadsheet. Browse,
define, analyze—while never leaving Excel. All @RISK functions are true
Excel functions, and behave exactly as native Excel functions do. @RISK
windows are all linked directly to cells in your spreadsheet, so
changes in one place are carried out in the other. @RISK graphs point
to their cells via callout windows. Drag-and-drop ease,
context-sensitive right-click menus, and the @RISK toolbar make
learning and navigating @RISK a snap.
Model, Simulate, Understand
Running an analysis with @RISK involves three simple steps:
- Set Up Your Model.
Start by replacing uncertain values in your spreadsheet with @RISK
probability distribution functions, like Normal, Uniform, or over 35
others. These @RISK functions simply represent a range of different
possible values that a cell could take instead of limiting it to just
one case. Choose your distribution from a graphical gallery, or define
distributions using historical data for a given input. Even combine
distributions with @RISK’s Compound function. Share specific
distribution functions with others using the @RISK Library, or swap out
@RISK functions for colleagues who don’t have @RISK.
- Run the Simulation. Click
the Simulate button and watch. @RISK recalculates your spreadsheet
model thousands of times. Each time, @RISK samples random values from
the @RISK functions you entered, places them in your model, and records
the resulting outcome. Explain the process to others by running your
simulation in Demo Mode, with graphs and reports updating live as the
simulation runs.
- Understand Your Risks.
The result of a simulation is a look at a whole range of possible
outcomes, including the probabilities they will occur. Graph your
results with histograms, Scatter Plots, cumulative curves, Box Plots,
and more. Identify critical factors with Tornado charts and sensitivity
analysis. Paste results into Excel, Word, or PowerPoint, or place them
in the @RISK Library for other @RISK users. You can even save results
and charts right inside your Excel workbook.
Licensing and Training
@RISK is available
through a variety of licensing options, including corporate, network,
and academic licenses. Training, consulting, and books can be bundled
with your software to ensure you and your staff get the most out of
your investment.
100% Excel
@RISK simulations are
calculated 100% within Excel, supported by Palisade sampling and
statistics proven in over twenty years of use. Palisade does not
attempt to rewrite Excel in an external recalculator to gain speed. A
single recalculation from an unsupported or poorly reproduced macro or
function can dramatically change your results. Where will it occur, and
when? Palisade harnesses the power of multiple CPUs and multi-core
processors to give you the fastest calculations. Correct results-and
fast-using @RISK!
Three Editions to Meet Your Needs
@RISK Professional
Designed for
professional-grade problems in any industry, @RISK Professional is
perfect for most commercial uses. It provides a balance of advanced
analysis and point-and-click ease of use, and includes:
- Integrated distribution fitting: Defines distribution functions for you based on historical or industry data.
- @RISK Library: A SQL database for storing and sharing
with others @RISK distribution functions, model components, and
simulation results.
- Excel Developer Kit (XDK): Automate and customize
@RISK for Excel through a complete library of commands and functions
that let you control every aspect of @RISK in your spreadsheet. Add
@RISK for Excel to any custom application.
- Stress Analysis: Lets you control the range that is
sampled from a distribution function, enabling you to see how different
scenarios affect your bottom line without changing your model.
- Advanced Sensitivity Analysis: Lets you see how changes in any input—distributions or regular values—affect simulation results.
- @RISK Goal Seek: Uses multiple simulations to find an input value that achieves a target simulation result you specify.
@RISK Industrial
Designed for your largest, most complex models, @RISK Industrial includes everything in @RISK Professional, plus the following:
- RISKOptimizer:
Combine Monte Carlo simulation with genetic algorithm-based
optimization to find the best combination of factors to lead to a
desired result under uncertain conditions.
- Advanced @RISKAccelerator: Speed up simulations with
parallel processing by using all multi-core processors and available
CPUs within a single machine.
Here is a table featuring the main features of the three editions of @Risk
|
@RISK Industrial
|
@RISK Pro
|
@RISK Standard
|
Advanced Simulation Engine
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Support for 2 CPUs or processor cores
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Over 40 Built-in Distribution Functions
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Integrated Distribution Gallery
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Insert Function Command
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Compound and Six Sigma functions
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Variety of Result Graphs and Charts
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Live Updating During Simulation
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Correlation of Inputs
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Freehand Distribution Artist
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
Integrated Data Fitting
|
X
|
X
|
|
@RISK Library
|
X
|
X
|
|
Excel Developer Kit (XDK)
|
X
|
X
|
|
Stress Analysis
|
X
|
X
|
|
Advanced Sensitivity Analysis
|
X
|
X
|
|
@RISK Goal Seek
|
X
|
X
|
|
Advanced @RISKAccelerator
|
X
|
|
|
RISKOptimizer
|
X
|
|
|
- Optimization under uncertainty
|
X
|
|
|
- Ranges for adjustable cells and constraints
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
X
|
|
|
|
|
X
|
|
|
- Convergence monitoring and genetic operators
|
X
|
|
|
- Original, Best, Last model updating
|
X
|
|
|
System Technical Requirements
@Risk is compatible with PC Excel 2000 and higher and PC Windows 2000 and higher.
© Copyright 2012 Palisade Corporation.
|
|
