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Wouldn’t you like to know the chances of making money – or taking a loss — on your next venture? Or the likelihood that your project will finish on time and within budget? How about the probabilities of finding oil or gas, and in what amounts?

 

Everyone would like answers to these types of questions. Armed with that kind of information, you could take a lot of guesswork out of big decisions and plan strategies with confidence. With @RISK®, you can answer these questions and more – right in your Excel spreadsheet.

 

@RISK (pronounced “at risk”) performs risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to show you many possible outcomes in your spreadsheet model—and tells you how likely they are to occur. It mathematically and objectively computes and tracks many different possible future scenarios, then tells you the probabilities and risks associated with each different one. This means you can judge which risks to take and which ones to avoid, allowing for the best decision making under uncertainty.

 

@RISK also helps you plan the best risk management strategies through the integration of RISKOptimizer, which combines Monte Carlo simulation with the latest solving technology to optimize any spreadsheet with uncertain values.  Using genetic algorithms or OptQuest, along with @RISK functions, RISKOptimizer can determine the best allocation of resources, the optimal asset allocation, the most efficient schedule, and much more.

 

INDUSTRY SAMPLE APPLICATION
FINANCE AND SECURITIES Retirement planning, Currency valuation, Real options analysis, Discounted Cash Flow analysis, Value-at-risk, Portfolio optimization
INSURANCE / REINSURANCE Loss reserves estimation, Premium pricing
OIL / GAS / ENERGY Exploration and production, Oil reserves estimation, Capital project estimation, Pricing, Regulation compliance
SIX SIGMA / QUALITY ANALYSIS Manufacturing quality control, Customer service improvement, DMAIC, DFSS / DOE, Lean Six Sigma
MANUFACTURING Six Sigma and quality analysis, New product analysis, Production siting, Plant shutdown, Product life cycle analysis
PHARMACEUTICALS / MEDICAL / HEALTHCARE New product analysis, R&D estimation, Disease infection estimation
ENVIRONMENT Endangered species preservation, Pollution cleanup and projections
GOVERNMENT AND DEFENSE Resource allocation, War games, Welfare and budgetary projections
AEROSPACE AND TRANSPORTATION Cost estimating, Highway planning and optimization, Supply chain distribution

How @RISK Works

Running an analysis with @RISK involves three simple steps:

 

1. Set Up Your Model.

Start by replacing uncertain values in your spreadsheet with @RISK probability distribution functions, like Normal, Uniform, or over 50 others. These @RISK functions simply represent a range of different possible values that a cell could take instead of limiting it to just one case. Choose your distribution from a graphical gallery, or define distributions using historical data for a given input. Even combine distributions with @RISK’s Compound function. Share specific distribution functions with others using the @RISK Library, or swap out @RISK functions for colleagues who don’t have @RISK.

 

Next, select your outputs—the “bottom line” cells whose values interest you. This could be potential profits, ROI, insurance claims payout, disease recovery rate, or anything at all.

 

Risk_1

 

Define Uncertainty with Ease
@RISK comes with over 50 distribution functions. These are true Excel functions, behaving the same way as Excel’s native functions and giving you total modeling flexibility. Choosing which @RISK distribution function to use is easy because @RISK comes with a graphical distribution gallery that lets you preview and compare various distributions before selecting them. You can even set up your distributions using percentiles as well as standard parameters, and overlay different distribution graphs for comparison. You can use historical or industry data and @RISK’s integrated data fitting tool BestFit® to select the best distribution function and the right parameters. You can select the type of data to be fit (e.g. continuous. discrete, or cumulative), filter the data, specify distribution types to be fit and specify Chi-Squared binning to be used. Fitted distributions are ranked based on three statistical tests, and may be compared graphically. You can even overlay graphs of multiple fitted distributions. Fit results can be linked to @RISK functions, so the functions will update automatically when input data changes.

 

Input distributions may be correlated with one another, individually or in a time series. Correlations are quickly defined in matrices that pop up over Excel, and a Correlated Time Series can be added in a single click. A Correlated Time Series is created from a multi-period range that contains a set of similar distributions in each time period.

 

All @RISK functions and correlations in your model are summarized—with thumbnail graphs—in the dashboard-style @RISK Model window, and you can watch distribution graphs pop up as you browse through cells in your spreadsheet.

 

Share Your Model with Others
@RISK functions can be stored in the @RISK Library, a SQL database for sharing with other @RISK users. @RISK functions may also be removed with the Function Swap feature, enabling your models be to shared with colleagues who don’t have @RISK installed. @RISK will keep track of any changes that occur in the spreadsheet while the @RISK functions were “swapped out.” You can control how @RISK should update formulas when it finds changes in the model. In addition, you can have @RISK automatically swap out functions when a workbook is saved and closed and automatically swap in if necessary when a workbook is opened.

2. Understand Your Risks

The result of a simulation is a look at a whole range of possible outcomes, including the probabilities they will occur. Graph your results with histograms, Scatter Plots, cumulative curves, Box Plots, and more. Identify critical factors with Tornado charts and sensitivity analysis. Paste results into Excel, Word, or PowerPoint, or place them in the @RISK Library for other @RISK users. You can even save results and charts right inside your Excel workbook.

 

Risk_2

 

Clear, Easy-to-Understand Results
@RISK provides a wide range of graphs for interpreting and presenting your results to others. Histograms and cumulative curves show the probability of different outcomes occurring. Use overlay graphs to compare multiple results, and summary graphs and Box Plots to see risk and trends over time or over ranges. Right-click menus and handy toolbars make navigation a snap. All graphs are fully customizable—including titles, axes, scaling, colors, and more—and ready for export to Excel, Word, or PowerPoint. You can watch results graphs pop up as you browse through cells in your spreadsheet.

 

@RISK provides you with sensitivity and scenario analyses to determine the critical factors in your models. Use sensitivity analysis to rank the distribution functions in your model according to the impact they have on your outputs. See the results clearly with an easy-to-interpret Tornado diagram, or uncover relationships with Scatter Plots. Sensitivity analysis pre-screens all inputs based on their precedence in formulas to outputs in your model, thus reducing irrelevant data. In addition, you can use @RISK’s Make Input function to select a formula whose value will be treated as an @RISK input for sensitivity analysis. In this way, multiple distributions can be combined into a single input, streamlining your sensitivity reports.

 

All simulation results for both outputs and inputs are summarized—with thumbnail graphs—in the dashboard-style @RISK Results Summary window. Simulation results may be saved directly in your Excel workbook, and also placed in the @RISK Library to for sharing with other @RISK users.

 

Excel Ease of Use

@RISK is a true add-in to Microsoft Excel, integrating completely with your spreadsheet. Browse, define, analyze—while never leaving Excel. All @RISK functions are true Excel functions, and behave exactly as native Excel functions do. @RISK windows are all linked directly to cells in your spreadsheet, so changes in one place are carried out in the other. @RISK graphs point to their cells via callout windows. Drag-and-drop ease, context-sensitive right-click menus, and the @RISK toolbar make learning and navigating @RISK a snap.

 

3. Run the Simulation

Click the Simulate button and watch. @RISK recalculates your spreadsheet model thousands of times. Each time, @RISK samples random values from the @RISK functions you entered, places them in your model, and records the resulting outcome. Explain the process to others by running your simulation in Demo Mode, with graphs and reports updating live as the simulation runs.

New @RISK 7.0 offers a range of improvements for any decision maker, from general use enhancements to new, specialized analytical features. Enhanced model-sharing, improved reporting, and sophisticated new analyses make @RISK 7 the only risk analysis tool you’ll need.

 

Efficient Frontier Analysis

Especially useful in financial analysis, Efficient Frontiers determine the optimal return that can be expected from a portfolio at a given level of risk. This analysis is included with RISKOptimizer, the optimization component of @RISK available in the Industrial edition.

 

Copulas

Also useful in the financial community, copulas provide sophisticated methods for correlating uncertain @RISK variables that give the user more control over the correlation pattern.

 

@RISK Data Viewer

Allows you to display any spreadsheet data, not just simulation results, using all @RISK charts and graphing options.

 

Share @RISK Graphs and Models with Non-@RISK Users

Graphically share input distributions and simulation results with those who do not have @RISK installed on their computers using new Thumbnail graphs. They can simply open your workbook and see @RISK graphs attached to the cells they describe — no special viewer required!

 

Customized Excel Reports

New custom Excel reports in @RISK enable you to create exactly the simulation results reports you want directly in Excel, automatically formatted for optimal viewing.

 

Auto-Updating

Users can choose to receive automatic notification of future updates from within @RISK, with a one-click installation system.

Compatibility: @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software is compatible with all 32-bit and 64-bit versions of Microsoft Windows XP through 10, Excel 2007 through 2013, and Project 2007 through 2013.

 

64-bit Compatible: 64-bit technology enables Excel and DecisionTools software to access much more computer memory than ever before. This allows for vastly larger models and greater computational power.


© Copyright 2017 Palisade Corporation.

Applicazione (add-in) che fornisce all’utente di Microsoft Excel o Lotus 1-2-3, la possibilità di effettuare analisi dei rischi e simulazioni.